Even though they appeared promising at the start of the year, Togo’s economic prospects could be jeopardized by a number of factors, including the current global geopolitical environment, the rebound of covid with the appearance of new variants, and climate change. This is according to the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) latest continental report, which was released last week on the sidelines of the General Assemblies in Accra (Ghana).

According to the Pan-African Financial Institution, GDP growth could be “expected at 5.8 percent against an initial forecast of 6.2 percent at the beginning of February 2022.” Inflation is expected to rise to 4.6 percent this year, up from 2.4 percent previously.

Russia and Ukraine are at odds

The main issue in this situation is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to the AfDB Group, “Togo’s trade relations with the two belligerents may be particularly affected.” “According to recent statistics,” he continued, “Russia supplied approximately 40% of Togo’s wheat imports in 2020 (UNCTAD March 2022).”

Because of concerns about wheat availability, the government launched a massive public awareness campaign encouraging the use of local flours. “The country may be affected by the negative effects of the conflict on partner countries such as those in the Eurozone and Asia,” according to the Akinwumi Adesina-led institution.

The health crisis and climate change

The Bank of Japan believes that “the return of the health crisis, particularly the appearance of new variants,” should not be underestimated in Asia, and recommends “amplification of stimulus measures such as the Novissi Program to alleviate the burden of the price surge on households already heavily impacted by the effects of the health crisis.”

Finally, climate change may have an impact on national economic recovery. According to the AfDB, the effects are visible in the agricultural sector, which has contracted to 24.7 percent of GDP in 2021 from 37.3 percent in 2008.

Sani Yaya, the Minister of Economy and Finance, was present at these meetings.

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