US Could Have Saved More Lives with Timely COVID-19 Booster Authorization, Says Northwestern University Study

Understanding the Northwestern University Study

A recent study from Northwestern University has suggested that the United States could have saved more lives during the COVID-19 pandemic had the authorization for a booster dose been issued sooner. The study, led by Bernard Black of Northwestern’s Pritzker School of Law and Kellogg School of Management, uses Israel as a counterfactual example to illustrate what could have been achieved in the U.S.

The researchers based their estimates and conclusions on U.S. national data on vaccination and mortality rates, data on vaccine effectiveness from Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, and Israeli data on vaccination rates. Their research reveals that through June 30, 2022, the U.S. could have saved an estimated 29,000 lives among those already vaccinated if the country had authorized boosters sooner and matched Israel's rate and speed of uptake.

The Importance of Timely Decision-Making in a Pandemic

One of the key takeaways from the study is the critical role that timely decision-making plays in managing a public health crisis. The initial two-dose course of mRNA vaccines was found to be highly effective, but their effectiveness waned over time against both COVID-19 infection and severe disease.

When Israel noticed a spike in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among the vaccinated population in mid-2021, they quickly authorized a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. This rapid response, accompanied by strong public health messaging about the importance of the booster dose, was instrumental in managing the crisis.

Contrarily, the U.S. was slower to authorize boosters, a decision that the study suggests may have resulted in unnecessary loss of life. The study spotlights the potential dangers of regulatory caution during a pandemic and emphasizes the importance of rapid action based on credible data.

The Impact of Booster Rollout Delays

To estimate the potential impact of the delayed booster rollout in the U.S., the study team analyzed COVID-19 death and vaccination data for Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, from 2017 to 2022. They focused on individuals aged 55 years and older, then extrapolated their estimates to national death and vaccination data.

Of the 300,791 COVID-19 deaths among people aged 55 and older, 56,566 occurred among those eligible for boosters. Of these deaths, an estimated 29,418 (52%) could potentially have been prevented if the U.S. had followed Israel's lead with the booster rollout.

The delay in vaccination could be a contributing factor to the recent increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations around the country. This highlights the need for more rapid vaccine rollouts and a stronger public health response.

Addressing Vaccine Fatigue

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has noted a concerning trend of low booster uptake. As of early November, only 14% of adults had received the latest Covid-19 booster. This lag in vaccination could be a significant factor in the recent increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations nationwide.

Health officials, like Dr. Kisha Davis of Montgomery County, have expressed concerns about the low vaccination rates. Among the possible reasons for the drop in booster uptake is vaccine fatigue. Therefore, effective public health messaging and addressing vaccine fatigue are crucial elements in enhancing the success of COVID-19 booster campaigns.