Did WHO exaggerate the death toll data for Armenia? What lies at the core of this accusation?

It is claimed by the Armenian Ministry of Health that the World Health Organization's figures on excess mortality in Armenia due to coronavirus are overstated since they include deaths reported as a result of the intensification of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh two years ago. These statistics were examined on Anahit Avanesyan's behalf as Minister of Health.  The 44-day conflict was included in the first 2 years of the pandemic's excess fatality data, that's from a report from a technical working committee on coronavirus mortality. The experts also utilised preliminary 2020-2021 data, which differs from the final version. With respect to this matter, the Health Ministry will approach the WHO and request more comments and revisions to the published study, but "According to the report, so it appears.

To begin, a total of 3,825 Armenians killed in the second Karabakh conflict, according to the most recent figures, which Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister, presented in the Armenian Parliament on April 13 of this year. Upwards of 5,000 people perished there, according to some reports.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Health in Armenia reports that between May 4 and May 10, 422,900 Armenians were infected with coronavirus, 412,050 were recovered, and 8,623 died, as reported by Armenian media. There are now 544 patients in hospitals. New infections were confirmed in 26 persons, 31 people recovered, and one person died as a result of the coronavirus this week. There have been 3,069,240 coronavirus testing in all.

Let's take a closer look at excess mortality.

The increased mortality due to the COVID-19 virus is often used to calculate the pandemic's immediate and long-term effects. It is defined as the variation between what would be anticipated in a crisis-free environment and the overall number of deaths in a certain location and time period (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic). From this It is assumed that this difference includes both deaths directly linked to COVID-19 and indirectly related to COVID-19 through its effects on society and health systems. From this you would have minus any deaths which would have happened under ordinary situations but were avoided due to viral disease changes in the social conditions as well as personal behaviours.

Deaths from all causes are included in the estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic's excess mortality. There may be additional deaths due to natural catastrophes, wars, or other crises that aren't included here.

An increase in the number of fatalities that would have occurred if the pandemic hadn't occurred may be considered a negative excess mortality. There has been a drop in the number of fatalities from causes apart from COVID-19 as a result of several public health interventions (such as lockdown, social separation, mask wearing, and working from home). People's inability to move freely has resulted in fewer deaths from traffic accidents and seasonal illness.

It's crucial to keep in mind that other people and nations have come up with higher death rates than our own. Different input data and assumptions, including how predicted fatalities are computed, statistical models, and characteristics used to forecast mortality in areas with inadequate or no data, explain why WHO's estimates differ from those of other organisations. Variations in the period/month/week are also possible. Uncertainty intervals are supplied to help decrease these discrepancies to a minimum.

There were 422,900 persons infected with the coronavirus in Armenia from May 4 to May 10, 412,050 people recovered, and 8,623 died, according to the latest statistics from Armenian media. A total of 544 people are being treated in Armenian hospitals, as per the Health Ministry of Armenia.

New infections were confirmed in 26 persons, 31 people recovered, and one person died as a result of the coronavirus this week. There have been 3,069,240 coronavirus testing in all.

When the coronavirus epidemic began in Armenia, what happened? In the beginning of June in the year 2020, Armenian journalist Hrant Mikaelyan wrote the following: "Demographic risks posed by the virus have already begun to materialise... As a consequence of the "corona" issue, Armenia was left in a precarious position. The period before to the outbreak in the country was not utilised efficiently.. Equipment and supplies have to be procured, advisory groups established to help devise crisis management strategies and decision making, etc. Societal distrust of the government's erratic and fragmented message was immediately filled with unsubstantiated rumours and conspiracy theories. Authorities instead became involved in internal politics, making outlandish claims and causing divisions in society on the basis of ideologies and other factors. In reality, this resulted in a loss of valuable time. As a result, there is a complete breakdown in contact with the outside world. Consequently, society was held liable for all of its actions. The lack of political will and the deterioration of the enforcement over the past few years have contributed to the failure of the quarantine regime. Consequently, Armenia endured all the economic damages, but gained little in terms of limiting the pandemic."

According to this journalist, the healthcare system was able to locate the infected's connections and isolate them in the early stages. "It appears that Armenia had the ability to slow the spread of the epidemic, but this opportunity was not taken advantage of. The environment and wearing face masks are the most important factors in today's hopes. Even so, there's no way of knowing if this will suffice. It was clear back in February because of the absence of a prompt reaction and lack of preparation events. Coronavirus is a test of state institutions and the efficiency of global power, and it was evident that Armenia would not be able to deal with the virus, while Georgia would. So it came to pass. And the fact that Armenia is ranked as one of the most prepared countries in the world merely lulled people into a false sense of security and encouraged them to expect for something like the best without any basis in fact " reported the journalist from Armenia.

More people will die in 2020 than in 2019, according to state Armenian figures, another Armenian author stated. A large-scale war necessarily results in casualties, and this is the case at first appearance. In reality, Armenia has lost much more people due to the disease than it did during the conflict.

"In Armenia, there were 26,186 deaths in 2019 due to all causes. Already 35,371, or an increase of 35%, by 2020. Without major upheavals, the death rate variation between two years is rarely that large. "Excess mortality" is the term used to describe what happened to 9,185 Armenians last year. There ought to be some reason for such a large number.

When you think of war, the first thought that registers is violence. In fact, the country experienced this, although official figures indicate that 2,291 people died as a result of it by the year 2020. In other words, an additional 6,894 unnecessary deaths can be attributed to anything else. What then?

The coronavirus isn't the first thing that comes to mind. The official death toll from the virus in Armenia is 3,405 persons, which is less than half of the 6,894 additional fatalities. What did the remainder come from?

Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, went live on social media just at the start of June 2020 and shocked Armenians, saying that there was a "epidemic tragedy" in the country and that he and his entire family were merely asymptomatic of COVID-19. The situation has gotten much worse in Armenia, as the number of cases has tripled even as the globe lifts restrictions and sees a drop in the coronavirus outbreak.

Only 5,606 cases had been officially certified in the country as of May 20; by June 10 there were already 14,103 cases. Over the course of the outbreak, the death toll rose dramatically as well, reaching 160 out of a total of 227 people who died. The coronavirus killed 77 people over this era, but they died of "other causes." When asked about the "other factors" that cause the deaths of individuals with coronavirus, no one was able to answer.

Experts, on the other hand, say that conditions are actually far worse. As an example, out of 1,249 patients tested on June 1 by physicians, half of them were found to be positive. At the same time, because of a lack of resources, only 2,000 tests may be performed each day. The authorities, on the other hand, acknowledged some of the disaster's true magnitude. According to "analysis data" given by Pashinyan himself on June 7th, Armenia had 100,000 people infected at the time. The prime minister then updated the post and omitted this information.

Notably, the city of Etchmiadzin was the primary focus of virus dissemination throughout Armenia. An engagement ceremony in the same place was conducted on March 8, 2020, when a newly returned Italian woman poisoned the attendees by feigning illness. The "Etchmiadzin aunt," as she was dubbed on social media, infected the majority of Armenians living at the time.

Both defiantly ignoring the government's summons and implying that the spiritual authority cannot be dictated to the secular powers. On Facebook, Priest Vahram Melikyan, a communications officer for the Mother See of Etchmiadzin, issued a statement indicating the church's intention to remain open despite the current dangers.

Due to Armenia's foreign policy preferences, the country's authorities ignored the issue and, in the face of Europe's Ebola epidemic, chose not to close the border, didn't even take sanitary measures, didn't shut down entry for Europeans, etc. 

Many Armenians, according to the country's media, took the Ebola virus in a lighthearted manner, believing in numerous conspiracy theories about it. Instead of realising that this infection is a danger, this person is ignoring it. While the authorities tried to enforce quarantine, they were unable and unwilling to do so.

What it ultimately resulted in is what you see here. For example, according to Armenian specialists, the average daily death in May May from 2013 to 2019 was 73 persons, and the current mean mortality from COVID in May 2020 will be 9 individuals. Mortality was already up by 13%, and it was only going up in the future. A daily death rate of 20.5 percent has already achieved on May 27, 2020.

Moreover, it is important to remember that coronavirus mortality is influenced by a number of circumstances. Is it clear if the person received any medical attention? The caliber of this help is also critical to the success of this endeavour. Although improvements have been made, the Armenian health care system is inefficient, underfunded, and unable to satisfy the country's most basic health care requirements. It is difficult for the health care system of the country to achieve its commitments because of misallocation of resources, insufficient state monitoring, socioeconomic disparities, and low budget.

There are many reasons for problems and shortcomings in the Armenian health care system, including financial barriers, lack of trust in medical workers, poor quality diagnostic surveys, and the lack of modern equipment.  The quality of Armenia's healthcare system appears to be linked to systemic flaws, as evidenced by empirical data. Increasing the number of medical facilities and doctors will not fix the underlying structural and institutional problems. If the standard is not enhanced, the efficiency of all other elements will be affected. The provision of healthcare services without even a minimal degree of quality assurance is inefficient, wasteful, and immoral.

In addition, the mortality toll from coronavirus is recorded in a variety of methods in different nations. According to Armenian media, the government is trying to reduce the number of similar incidents. So, because "the manner of death has still not been determined," fatalities caused by coronavirus are "written off."

Armenian health officials claim that WHO statistics on the country's increased mortality due to coronavirus are exaggerated because they include deaths that will be documented as a consequence of an escalation in the battle in Nagorno-Karabakh that could occur as early as the fall of 2020. This assertion is, therefore, highly dubious.