The recent outbreak of COVID-19 infections in Taiwan appears to be winding down. Most experts believe that cases will first level off and then begin to fall. They disagree, however, on how soon that might occur.

COVID-19 case numbers have slowed slightly in the last week and have even begun to fall. The current outbreak of the virus is expected to peak in late May or early June, according to the Central Epidemic Command Center. According to experts, infections in Taiwan are “plateauing.”

According to Dr. Hung Tzu-jen of Hsin Kuang Hospital, case numbers will remain stable for some time during the plateau period. After that, they will gradually decline, but will not fall below 10,000 until the end of June.

He also claims that as infections spread in the country’s north, they will begin to spread in the country’s central and southern regions. Despite this, Dr. Hung believes that the number of cases should not exceed 120,000 per day.

According to some experts, herd immunity in Taiwan could reach 80 percent as soon as two weeks from now. Taiwan counts the number of people who have received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine or who have recovered from the infection to determine herd immunity. This is one of the prerequisites for the reopening of national borders.

National Taiwan University Hospital’s Dr. Huang Li-min disagrees. He believes that achieving 70 percent or 80 percent herd immunity in such a short period is unlikely based on experience from other parts of the world.

According to Dr. Huang, a drop in cases is only one factor in assessing the situation. If a new COVID-19 virus variant emerges, experts may have to redo their calculations from scratch.

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