Despite anticipation of a 'tidal wave of steel scrap' from China, recent developments indicate this has failed to materialize. This unexpected turn of events is proving to be beneficial for Australia's three largest mining companies: BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue. These mining giants are set to file their financial reports starting February 20, with iron ore, consistently trading above $100 a tonne, expected to be the primary source of their profits.
Uncertain Predictions for Iron Ore Prices
While some analysts have been anticipating a dip in iron ore prices due to decelerating construction activity in China and the potential displacement of imported iron ore by locally collected scrap steel, the reality seems to be more complex. Australia's Westpac Bank forecasts a drop in iron ore prices, yet Morgan Stanley presents a contrasting prediction, projecting a rise in prices. This difference in outlooks underscores the ongoing uncertainty in the sector.
The Unexpected Role of Scrap Steel
The failure of scrap steel to secure a larger share of the steel-making business in China, as opposed to the expected dominance, is causing a stir in the industry. Morgan Stanley's analysis highlights this surprising pattern, attributing the limited use of scrap steel in China's steel industry to several inhibiting factors. These include deflation, weak steel profits, and the continued dominance of iron ore and metallurgical coal in steelmaking in the country.
Increased Demand for Iron Ore
The shortfall of scrap steel in China has led to an escalated demand for iron ore. This upsurge in demand is further spurred by the government's crackdown on unlawful scrap steel processing and the closing of small steel mills. As a result, the iron ore market is experiencing a significant boost, particularly benefiting Australia's mining companies.
Impact on Steel Manufacturing Companies
On a related note, ArcelorMittal SA (Amsa), South Africa's largest steel producer, has postponed the mothballing of its long steel units at Newcastle and Vereeniging for up to six months. This move, prompted by commitments made by the government and Transnet, provides temporary relief to the company's employees, with around 3,500 jobs at stake. Nevertheless, the future of the units remains uncertain, with the company stating that progress with the agreed steps would determine the future of the business.
In conclusion, the unexpected lack of a surge in scrap steel use in China has led to a strengthened demand for iron ore, particularly benefiting Australia's mining companies. However, the market remains marked by uncertainty, as conflicting forecasts from financial institutions and the unpredictable dynamics of the Chinese steel industry continue to shape the global iron ore landscape.